The prediction of voluntary intake of grazing dairy cows

Abstract

SUMMARY Information on the total organic matter intake, concentrates supplied (C), live weight (LW), week of lactation (WL), milk yield (MY), herbage organic matter digestibility (HOMD), herbage mass, sward height (SHT) or herbage allowance (HAL) measured individually for 357 cows at one of three sites was assembled. Observed intake was compared with intakes predicted by existing intake equations and new prediction equations based on regression models or regression and least-squares constants were developed. Major factors affecting intake were MY, LW, WL, C and HAL or SHT. Although HOMD was correlated with intake, better predictions were obtained when HOMD was omitted. There were differences between sites possibly associated with differences in measurement techniques. The predictive value of some existing equations and new equations were tested against independent sets of data. A simple equation (A) based on MY and LW (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, 1975) gave satisfactory average predictions but the mean square prediction error (MSPE) was high. The equations of Vadiveloo & Holmes (1979) adjusted for bias gave a relatively low MSPE. The preferred new equations for grazing cattle included MY, LW, WL, C and HAL or SHT, and their MSPE were similar to or lower than for indoor equations. The discussion indicates that a simple equation (A) would give adequate predictions for farm planning. The more detailed equations illustrate the inter-relations of animal with sward conditions and concentrate allowances. Predicted intakes may deviate from actual intakes because of short-term changes in body reserves.