Forecasting Internet demand using mathematical models

Abstract

Innovation diffusion has been of prime interest to both the entrepreneur as well as the industrialist. In spite of the availability of a vast literature on the subject several issues and possibilities, both existing and emerging in this area, are still untouched and it will be desirable to examine some of them, which may contribute in theoretical and empirical studies. With these objectives an attempt has been made here to analyse the issues related to market forecasts, diffusion indicators, behavioural characteristics of the adopters, supply constraints in developing countries and so on. Global diffusion of Internet, which has revolutionised the society, has been analysed here in detail as a case study. During the last twenty-five years it has penetrated into the developed world and now under developed countries have also joined the Internet bandwagon. Impact of Internet on the society is going to be tremendous is evident from the unprecedented growth rate being witnessed in the history of innovation diffusion. In this paper global diffusion of Internet has been presented and its future demand and penetration rate have been estimated with the help of mathematical models for innovation diffusion. Further, an attempt has been made to compare the suitability of various models for making demand projections.