Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?
Top Cited Papers
- 12 December 2016
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
- Vol. 113 (52), 14964-14969
- https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1610359113
Abstract
Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today.Keywords
Funding Information
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1082050)
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPPGD1418)
This publication has 44 references indexed in Scilit:
- Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water managementNature, 2012
- What is the irrigation potential for Africa? A combined biophysical and socioeconomic approachFood Policy, 2011
- Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agricultureProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2011
- Solutions for a cultivated planetNature, 2011
- The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle EastSSRN Electronic Journal, 2011
- Crop Yield Gaps: Their Importance, Magnitudes, and CausesAnnual Review of Environment and Resources, 2009
- Rethinking public policy in agriculture: lessons from history, distant and recentThe Journal of Peasant Studies, 2009
- Features, Applications, and Limitations of the Hybrid‐Maize Simulation ModelAgronomy Journal, 2006
- Meeting Cereal Demand While Protecting Natural Resources and Improving Environmental QualityAnnual Review of Environment and Resources, 2003
- Yield Potential: Its Definition, Measurement, and SignificanceCrop Science, 1999