Prediction of the Epidemic Peak of Coronavirus Disease in Japan, 2020
Open Access
- 13 March 2020
- journal article
- research article
- Published by MDPI AG in Journal of Clinical Medicine
- Vol. 9 (3), 789
- https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9030789
Abstract
The first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan was reported on 15 January 2020 and the number of reported cases has increased day by day. The purpose of this study is to give a prediction of the epidemic peak for COVID-19 in Japan by using the real-time data from 15 January to 29 February 2020. Taking into account the uncertainty due to the incomplete identification of infective population, we apply the well-known SEIR compartmental model for the prediction. By using a least-square-based method with Poisson noise, we estimate that the basic reproduction number for the epidemic in Japan is ( CI, – ) and the epidemic peak could possibly reach the early-middle summer. In addition, we obtain the following epidemiological insights: (1) the essential epidemic size is less likely to be affected by the rate of identification of the actual infective population; (2) the intervention has a positive effect on the delay of the epidemic peak; (3) intervention over a relatively long period is needed to effectively reduce the final epidemic size.
Funding Information
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (19K14594)
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