Mapping genome variation of SARS-CoV-2 worldwide highlights the impact of COVID-19 super-spreaders

Abstract

The human pathogen severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is responsible for the major pandemic of the 21st century. We analyzed >4,700 SARS-CoV-2 genomes and associated meta-data retrieved from public repositories. SARS-CoV-2 sequences have a high sequence identity (>99.9%), which drops to >96% when compared to bat coronavirus genome. We built a mutation-annotated reference SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny with two main macro-haplogroups, A and B, both of Asian origin, and >160 sub-branches representing virus strains of variable geographical origins worldwide, revealing a rather uniform mutation occurrence along branches that could have implications for diagnostics and the design of future vaccines. Identification of the root of SARS-CoV-2 genomes is not without problems, owing to conflicting interpretations derived from either using the bat coronavirus genomes as an outgroup or relying on the sampling chronology of the SARS-CoV-2 genomes and TMRCA estimates; however, the overall scenario favors haplogroup A as the ancestral node. Phylogenetic analysis indicates a TMRCA for SARS-CoV-2 genomes dating to 12 November 2019 - thus matching epidemiological records. Sub-haplogroup A2 most likely originated in Europe from an Asian ancestor and gave rise to sub-clade A2a, which represents the major non-Asian outbreak, especially in Africa and Europe. Multiple founder effect episodes, most likely associated with super-spreader hosts, might explain COVID-19 pandemic to a large extent.