Optimal Arctic Port locations: a quantitative composite multiplier analysis of potential sites

Abstract

The opening of the Arctic presents opportunities for expanded natural resource extraction and increased shipping, both requiring substantial port development to facilitate safe and effective operations. The remoteness and sparsity of Arctic ports requires each port to serve multiple functions – facilitating local and international trade, safety and security, and navigation and emergency services – while respecting the environmentally sensitive surroundings. Evaluating principal location criteria over the entire Arctic region identifies the optimal port locations that would increase the availability of port services while minimizing the number, and therefore impact of Arctic ports. This paper provides a quantitative composite multiplier method to create a unique Port Impact Value (PIV) for 185 potential port locations using the five most cited port development criteria: Proximity to Natural Resources, Proximity from Environmentally Sensitive Areas, Distance to Nearest Shipping Lane, Harbor Depth, and Multimodal Transport Connectivity. The PIV provides the first comprehensive quantitative ranking of Arctic ports and identifies eight optimal port locations that most effectively provide the required expansion of the Arctic port services with minimal environmental disruption.