The More You Look, the More You Find: Effects of Hepatitis C Virus Testing Interval on Reinfection Incidence and Clearance and Implications for Future Vaccine Study Design

Abstract

Introduction. Studies have explored whether spontaneous clearance of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection decreases the likelihood of reinfection or increases the probability of clearance. This analysis investigates whether the conflicting findings from these studies could be due to differences in frequency of HCV RNA testing. Methods. A model simulated the dynamics of HCV reinfection and clearance among a cohort of injection drug users. For different reinfection incidence and clearance rates, the model evaluated the accuracy of epidemiological studies that used different HCV testing frequencies. Results. Experimental estimates for the reinfection incidence and clearance probability will be accurate (75%) is consistent with data.