Estimating hydrological characteristics in the Amu Darya River basin under climate change conditions
- 1 October 2011
- journal article
- Published by Allerton Press in Russian Meteorology and Hydrology
- Vol. 36 (10), 681-689
- https://doi.org/10.3103/s1068373911100062
Abstract
Under consideration are results of solving the problem of the river water content estimation under conditions of uncertainties of climate change forecasts and the catchment state with a reference to the Amu Darya River basin. When constructing regional climate models, one selected a multimodel approach using the results of several global models and a statistical downscaling method that made the climate scenarios more detailed. The estimates demonstrated that in the medium- and long-term perspective, the Amu Darya River runoff is expected to decrease. As a result of the Bayesian ideology application, using the calculations got with a total probability formula, a prognostic probability curve of an annual river runoff supply of the basin rivers was derived based on different weights given to the estimates of a mean value for different climate scenarios. Prognostic characteristics of the annual runoff for the Amu Darya basin rivers are estimated in a form acceptable for hydrologic and hydroeconomic application.Keywords
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