Trends in Total Precipitation and Frequency of Daily Precipitation Extremes over China
Top Cited Papers
- 1 April 2005
- journal article
- Published by American Meteorological Society in Journal of Climate
- Vol. 18 (7), 1096-1108
- https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-3318.1
Abstract
Based on a newly developed daily precipitation dataset of 740 stations in China and more robust trend detection techniques, trends in annual and seasonal total precipitation and in extreme daily precipitation, defined as those larger than its 95th percentile for the year, summer, and winter half years, have been assessed for the period 1951–2000. Possible links between changes in total precipitation and frequency of extremes have also been explored. The results indicate that there is little trend in total precipitation for China as a whole, but there are distinctive regional and seasonal patterns of trends. Annual total precipitation has significantly decreased over southern northeast China, north China, and over the Sichuan Basin but significantly increased in western China, the Yangtze River valley, and the southeastern coast. In western China, precipitation increase has been observed for both cold and warm seasons. However, trends differ from one season to another in eastern China. Spring precipitation has increased in southern northeast China and north China but decreased significantly in the midreach of the Yangzte River. The summer precipitation trend is very similar to that of annual totals. Autumn precipitation has generally decreased throughout eastern China. In winter, precipitation has significantly decreased over the northern part of eastern China but increased in the south. The number of rain days has significantly decreased throughout most parts of China with northwest China being an exception. Meanwhile, precipitation intensity has significantly increased. This suggests that the precipitation increase in western China is due to the increase in both precipitation frequency and intensity. In eastern China, the impact of reduced number of rain days seems to be more dominant in the north while the influence of enhanced intensity prevails in the south. Over regions with increasing precipitation trends, there have been much higher than normal frequency of precipitation extreme events. For example, significant increases in extreme precipitation have been found in western China, in the mid–lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and in parts of the southwest and south China coastal area. A significant decrease in extremes is observed in north China and the Sichuan Basin. Trends in the number of extremes and total precipitation from nonextreme events are generally in phase. An exception is southwest China where an increase of extreme events is associated with a decrease in total nonextreme precipitation.Keywords
This publication has 17 references indexed in Scilit:
- Centennial-scale dry-wet variations in East AsiaClimate Dynamics, 2003
- A sudden change in summer rainfall characteristics in Korea during the late 1970sInternational Journal of Climatology, 2003
- Shift in the summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley in the late 1970sGeophysical Research Letters, 2002
- Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth centuryClimate Research, 2002
- Detection Probability of Trends in Rare Events: Theory and Application to Heavy Precipitation in the Alpine RegionJournal of Climate, 2001
- Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961–1998International Journal of Climatology, 2001
- Indices of Climate Change for the United StatesBulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1996
- Variability and Trends of Total Precipitation and Snowfall over the United States and CanadaJournal of Climate, 1994
- Generalized Linear ModelsPublished by Springer Science and Business Media LLC ,1989
- Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall's TauJournal of the American Statistical Association, 1968