Changes in Patterns of Trip Planning Horizon: A Cohort Analytical Approach

Abstract

Knowledge of changing age structure and its effect on the patterns of travel behavior may help tourism marketers and promoters identify growth areas, target age-related segments, or forecast future preferences for, and use of, their products and services. The purpose of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between changes in patterns of trip planning horizon over time and the effects of biological age, time of travel, and generational cohort. Household data of 1997 and 2002 were utilized for this study. Independent samples t-tests and one-way ANOVA were carried out to test the relationship between trip planning horizon and the effects of time-related variables, and then stepwise multiple regression was employed to identify key determinants that explain variations in trip planning horizon over time. The results of the study provided evidence that travelers' trip planning horizon became shorter during the five-year period. Those traveling in 2002 had 2.7% shorter trip-planning intervals than those traveling in 1997; and those born between 1970 and 1974 had 20.3% shorter trip-planning intervals than those born from 1980–1984. The timing of intensive tourism advertising and promotion should be considered before tourism season begins because of these short trip planning horizons. The implications of the study were discussed.