Forecasting Infant Mortality Rate for China: A Comparison Between α-Sutte Indicator, ARIMA, and Holt-Winters

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to apply the α-Sutte Indicator in forecasting data. α-Sutte Indicator is a new forecasting method that was developed in 2017 by Ansari Saleh Ahmar. To see the accuracy of these methods, the forecasting results of the α-Sutte Indicator will be forecasting methods compared to other items, namely: ARIMA and HoltWinters. Based on the results of forecasting, it is found that α-Sutte Indicator has MSE and MAPE values that are lower than other methods (ARIMA and HoltWinters). This is supported by MSE data from α-Sutte Indicator smaller than ARIMA(2,2,2) and HoltWinters i.e. 0.03; 3.06; and 3.15.