SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalization, severity, criticality, and fatality rates

Abstract

Background This study aimed to estimate the age-stratified and overall morbidity and mortality rates of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection based on an analysis of the pervasive SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Qatar, a country with Methods Infection disease outcomes were investigated using a Bayesian approach applied to an age-structured mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression in the population. The model was fitted to infection and disease time-series and age-stratified data. Two separate criteria for classifying morbidity were used: one based on actual recorded hospital admission (acute-care or intensive-care-unit hospitalization) and one based on clinical presentation as per World Health Organization classification of disease severity or criticality. Results All outcomes showed very strong age dependence, with low values for those Conclusions SARS-CoV-2 severity and fatality in Qatar was not high and demonstrated a very strong age dependence with <4 infections in every 1,000 being severe or critical and <2 in every 10,000 being fatal. Epidemic expansion in nations with young populations may lead to lower disease burden than previously thought.