Will farmland transfer reduce grain acreage? Evidence from Gansu province, China

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of farmland renting-in on planted grain acreage. A survey data of five counties were analyzed with the two-stage ordinary least square (2SLS) model. Households renting in land trended to plant more maize, and the more land was rented by a household the more maize was planted, while wheat acreage showed non-response to farmland renting-in. Overall, our analysis suggests that policy makers should be prepared for different changing trends of grain crop acreage across the nation as farmland transfer continues. Future research should pay attention to the effect of farmland transfer on agricultural productivity and rural household income growth. As the Chinese government is promoting larger-scale and more mechanized farms as a way of protecting grain security, it is important to understand whether farmland renting-in will reduce planted grain acreage. This study provides empirical evidence showing the answer to that question may differ across different regions and depend on the particular grain crop in question.