Forecasting the Demand for Electric Vehicles: Accounting for Attitudes and Perceptions
- 1 November 2014
- journal article
- Published by Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) in Transportation Science
- Vol. 48 (4), 483-499
- https://doi.org/10.1287/trsc.2013.0487
Abstract
In the context of the arrival of electric vehicles on the car market, new mathematical models are needed to understand and predict the impact on the market shares. This research provides a comprehensive methodology to forecast the demand of a technology that is not widespread yet, such as electric cars. It aims at providing contributions regarding three issues related to the prediction of the demand for electric vehicles: survey design, model estimation, and forecasting. We develop a stated preferences (SP) survey with personalized choice situations involving standard gasoline/diesel cars and electric cars. We specify a hybrid choice model accounting for attitudes toward leasing contracts or practical aspects of a car in the decision-making process. A forecasting analysis based on the collected SP data and additional market information is performed to evaluate the future demand for electric cars.Keywords
This publication has 20 references indexed in Scilit:
- System optimum dynamic traffic assignment graphical solution method for a congested freeway and one destinationTransportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2006
- Hybrid Choice Models: Progress and ChallengesMarketing Letters, 2002
- Potential demand for alternative fuel vehiclesTransportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2001
- Joint mixed logit models of stated and revealed preferences for alternative-fuel vehiclesTransportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2000
- Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patternsJournal of Econometrics, 1998
- Forecasting Demand for New Travel AlternativesPublished by Elsevier BV ,1998
- A transactions choice model for forecasting demand for alternative-fuel vehiclesResearch in Transportation Economics, 1996
- A game theoretic/network equilibrium solution approach for the railroad freight car management problemTransportation Research Part B: Methodological, 1993
- DISAGGREGATE TRIP DISTRIBUTION MODELSDoboku Gakkai Ronbunshu, 1984
- Assessing the potential demand for electric carsJournal of Econometrics, 1981