Severity prediction rules in community acquired pneumonia: a validation study

Abstract

BACKGROUND The British Thoracic Society (BTS) developed a rule (BTSr) based on severity criteria to predict short term mortality in adults admitted to hospital with community acquired pneumonia (CAP). However, neither the BTSr nor a recent modification of it (mBTSr) have been validated in the UK. A case-control study was conducted in a typical UK population to determine the clinical factors predictive of mortality and to assess the performance of these rules. METHODS Cases were drawn from all patients with CAP who died in 1997 in five large hospitals in the Mid Trent area. Controls were randomly selected from survivors. Factors associated with mortality were identified following review of medical case notes and performance of the severity prediction rules assessed. RESULTS Age >65 years, temperature 24 breaths/min, mental confusion, urea concentration of >7 mmol/l, sodium concentration of CONCLUSIONS The value of three of the four factors (presence of mental confusion, raised respiratory rate, raised urea) used in the mBTSr as predictors of mortality is confirmed. However, the BTSr and mBTSr did not perform as well in this validation study which included a high proportion (48%) of elderly patients (⩾75 years) compared with the derivation studies.