Vehicle Trajectory Prediction by Integrating Physics- and Maneuver-Based Approaches Using Interactive Multiple Models

Abstract

Vehicle trajectory prediction helps automated vehicles and advanced driver-assistance systems have a better understanding of traffic environment and perform tasks such as criticality assessment in advance. In this study, an integrated vehicle trajectory prediction method is proposed by combining physics- and maneuver-based approaches. These two methods were combined for the reason that the physics-based trajectory prediction method could ensure accuracy in the short term with the consideration of vehicle running dynamic parameters, and the maneuver-based prediction approach has a long-term insight into future trajectories with maneuver estimation. In this study, the interactive multiple model trajectory prediction (IMMTP) method is proposed by combining the two predicting models. The probability of each model in the interactive multiple models could recursively adjust according to the predicting variance of each model. In addition, prediction uncertainty is considered by employing unscented Kalman filters in the physics-based prediction model. To the maneuver-based method, random elements for uncertainty are introduced to the trajectory of each maneuver inferred by using the dynamic Bayesian network. The approach is applied and analyzed in the lane-changing scenario by using naturalistic driving data. Comparison results indicate that IMMTP could achieve a more accurate prediction trajectory with a long prediction horizon.