A new ARIMA model for hourly load forecasting

Abstract

In this work, a short term load forecasting model and its application in real time are described. It is being used successfully in the Central Region Control Center in Red Electrica de Espana. The model is based on a time series analysis methodology and includes the action of meteorology as an explanatory variable. Information about the influence of meteorology on hourly electrical load is given to the model as an explanatory variable by using the daily electrical load forecast. This is chosen as the explanatory variable because it can be considered as the most efficient and simple way to estimate the influence of meteorology in every hour of the day. The use of the model in a real time control system is also explained in this work.