Dynamic Predictions and Prospective Accuracy in Joint Models for Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data
- 9 February 2011
- journal article
- Published by Oxford University Press (OUP) in Biometrics
- Vol. 67 (3), 819-829
- https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-0420.2010.01546.x
Abstract
Summary In longitudinal studies it is often of interest to investigate how a marker that is repeatedly measured in time is associated with a time to an event of interest. This type of research question has given rise to a rapidly developing field of biostatistics research that deals with the joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data. In this article, we consider this modeling framework and focus particularly on the assessment of the predictive ability of the longitudinal marker for the time-to-event outcome. In particular, we start by presenting how survival probabilities can be estimated for future subjects based on their available longitudinal measurements and a fitted joint model. Following we derive accuracy measures under the joint modeling framework and assess how well the marker is capable of discriminating between subjects who experience the event within a medically meaningful time frame from subjects who do not. We illustrate our proposals on a real data set on human immunodeficiency virus infected patients for which we are interested in predicting the time-to-death using their longitudinal CD4 cell count measurements.Keywords
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