A commentary on studies presenting projections of the future prevalence of dementia
Top Cited Papers
Open Access
- 2 January 2013
- journal article
- Published by Springer Science and Business Media LLC in BMC Public Health
- Vol. 13 (1), 1-5
- https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-13-1
Abstract
Population ageing over the first half of this century is likely to lead to dramatic increases in the prevalence of dementia. This will affect all regions of the world, but particularly developing regions. Dementia projections have been used extensively to support policy. It is therefore important these projections are as accurate as possible. In this paper we provide a commentary on studies projecting the future prevalence of dementia for the world or for individual continents. We identify some important limitations of the methods used in published projections and provide recommendations to improve the accuracy of future projections, and allow for the checking of the accuracy of the predictions. Accurate projections of dementia incidence, at both the global and local level, are essential for healthcare planners.Keywords
This publication has 26 references indexed in Scilit:
- The projected effect of risk factor reduction on Alzheimer's disease prevalenceThe Lancet Neurology, 2011
- Modeling the Dementia EpidemicCNS Neuroscience & Therapeutics, 2011
- Designing prevention programmes to reduce incidence of dementia: prospective cohort study of modifiable risk factorsBMJ, 2010
- How many dementia cases in France and Europe? Alternative projections and scenarios 2010–2050European Journal of Neurology, 2010
- Estimating life expectancy in health and ill health by using a hidden Markov modelJournal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics, 2009
- Statins for the prevention of dementiaPublished by Wiley ,2009
- The effect of dementia trends and treatments on longevity and disability: a simulation model based on the MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (MRC CFAS)Age and Ageing, 2008
- Prevalence of dementia in a southern European population in two different time periods: the ZARADEMP ProjectActa Psychiatrica Scandinavica, 2007
- Increasing Rates of Dementia at Time of Declining Mortality From StrokeStroke, 2006
- Global prevalence of dementia: a Delphi consensus studyThe Lancet, 2006