Characterization of the 11-Year Solar Signal Using a Multiple Regression Analysis of the ERA-40 Dataset
Open Access
- 1 April 2005
- journal article
- Published by American Meteorological Society in Journal of Climate
- Vol. 18 (7), 996-1015
- https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-3308.1
Abstract
A multiple linear regression analysis of the ERA-40 dataset for the period 1979–2001 has been used to study the influence of the 11-yr solar cycle on atmospheric temperature and zonal winds. Volcanic, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), ENSO, and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signatures are also presented. The solar signal is shown to be readily distinguishable from the volcanic signal. The main solar signal is a statistically significant positive response (i.e., warmer in solar maximum) of 1.75 K over the equator with peak values at 43 km and a reversed signal of similar magnitude at high latitudes that is seasonally dependent. Consistent with this is a statistically significant zonal wind response of up to 6 m s−1 in the subtropical upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere that is also seasonally dependent. The wind anomalies are westerly/easterly in solar maximum/minimum. In addition, there is a statistically significant temperature response in the subtropical lower stratosphere that shows similarity in spatial structure to the QBO response, suggesting a possible interaction between the solar and QBO signals in this region. The solar response in tropospheric zonal winds is small but significant, confirming previous studies that indicate a possible modulation of the Hadley circulation.Keywords
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