Recession and Migration: A New Era for Labor Migration?

Abstract

The current recession, the worst in a half century, is likely to affect international migration differently than past recessions. In 1973–1974 and 1981–1982, rising oil prices led to recessions in oil-importing countries and economic booms in oil-exporting countries, enabling some migrants to shift from bust to boom areas, as from Europe to the Middle East. The 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis did not spread globally, and was followed by a relatively quick resumption of economic and job growth that attracted migrant workers. The 2008–2009 recession is most severe in countries that had the most severe debt excesses, including the U.S., Spain, and Eastern Europe, and in countries most dependent on trade, including many Asian countries. New deployments of migrants are likely to slow, but what is not yet clear is how many migrants who lose jobs will remain abroad.