The Role of Linear Interference in the Annular Mode Response to Extratropical Surface Forcing

Abstract

The classical problem of predicting the atmospheric circulation response to extratropical surface forcing is revisited in the context of the observed connection between autumnal snow cover anomalies over Siberia and wintertime anomalies of the northern annular mode (NAM). Previous work has shown that in general circulation model (GCM) simulations in which autumnal Siberian snow forcing is prescribed, a vertically propagating Rossby wave train is generated that propagates into the stratosphere, drives dynamical stratospheric warming, and induces a negative NAM response that couples to the troposphere. Important questions remain regarding the dynamics of the response to this surface cooling. It is shown that previously unexplained aspects of the evolution of the response in a comprehensive GCM can be explained by examining the time evolution of the phasing, and hence the linear interference, between the Rossby wave response and the background climatological stationary wave. When the wave response and background wave are in phase, wave activity into the stratosphere is amplified and the zonal-mean stratosphere–troposphere NAM response displays a negative tendency; when they are out of phase, wave activity into the stratosphere is reduced and the NAM response displays a positive tendency. The effects of linear interference are probed further in a simplified GCM, where an imposed lower tropospheric cooling is varied in position, strength, and sign. As in the comprehensive GCM, linear interference strongly influences the response over a realistic range of forcing strengths. The transition from linear to nonlinear behavior is shown to depend simply on forcing strength.