Molecular Phylodynamic Analysis Indicates Lineage Displacement Occurred in Chinese Rabies Epidemics between 1949 to 2010

Abstract

Rabies remains a serious problem in China with three epidemics since 1949 and the country in the midst of the third epidemic. Significantly, the control of each outbreak has been followed by a rapid reemergence of the disease. In 2005, the government implemented a rabies national surveillance program that included the collection and screening of almost 8,000 samples. In this work, we analyzed a Chinese dataset comprising 320 glycoprotein sequences covering 23 provinces and eight species, spanning the second and third epidemics. Specifically, we investigated whether the three epidemics are associated with a single reemerging lineage or a different lineage was responsible for each epidemic. Consistent with previous results, phylogenetic analysis identified six lineages, China I to VI. Analysis of the geographical composition of these lineages revealed they are consistent with human case data and reflect the gradual emergence of China I in the third epidemic. Initially, China I was restricted to south China and China II was dominant. However, as the epidemic began to spread into new areas, China I began to emerge, whereas China II remained confined to south China. By the latter part of the surveillance period, almost all isolates were China I and contributions from the remaining lineages were minimal. The prevalence of China II in the early stages of the third epidemic and its established presence in wildlife suggests that it too replaced a previously dominant lineage during the second epidemic. This lineage replacement may be a consequence of control programs that were dominated by dog culling efforts as the primary control method in the first two epidemics. This had the effect of reducing dominant strains to levels comparable with other localized background stains. Our results indicate the importance of effective control strategies for long term control of the disease. Since 1949, there have been three rabies epidemics in China. The country is currently in the midst of a third epidemic. After the first two epidemics were brought under control, there was a rapid reemergence of the disease. In 2005, the government implemented a national surveillance program and as part of this work, samples were collected from humans and animals and screened for rabies. Positive samples were sequenced and combined with other publicly available sequences to form a dataset that spanned almost all epidemic regions in China. A phylogenetic tree was constructed the clustering of isolates according to geographic origin and lineage was investigated. We found that most isolates were grouped into two lineages China I and China II. However, the proportion of isolates in these lineages changed over time until almost all new isolates were placed in China I, indicating it has emerged as the dominant lineage. Furthermore, the significantly higher number of China II isolates compared to remaining lineages together with its established presence in wildlife suggests that it was dominant in the second epidemic, suggesting that lineage replacement also occurred during the previous epidemic.