Simulating indoor concentrations of NO2 and PM2.5 in multifamily housing for use in health-based intervention modeling

Abstract

Residents of low‐income multifamily housing can have elevated exposures to multiple environmental pollutants known to influence asthma. Simulation models can characterize the health implications of changing indoor concentrations, but quantifying the influence of interventions on concentrations is challenging given complex airflow and source characteristics. In this study, we simulated concentrations in a prototype multifamily building using CONTAM, a multizone airflow and contaminant transport program. Contaminants modeled included PM_2.5 and NO₂, and parameters included stove use, presence and operability of exhaust fans, smoking, unit level, and building leakiness. We developed regression models to explain variability in CONTAM outputs for individual sources, in a manner that could be utilized in simulation modeling of health outcomes. To evaluate our models, we generated a database of 1000 simulated households with characteristics consistent with Boston public housing developments and residents and compared the predicted levels of NO₂ and PM_2.5 and their correlates with the literature. Our analyses demonstrated that CONTAM outputs could be readily explained by available parameters (R² between 0.89 and 0.98 across models), but that one‐compartment box models would mischaracterize concentrations and source contributions. Our study quantifies the key drivers for indoor concentrations in multifamily housing and helps to identify opportunities for interventions. Practical Implications Many low‐income urban asthmatics live in multifamily housing that may be amenable to ventilation‐related interventions such as weatherization or air sealing, wall and ceiling hole repairs, and exhaust fan installation or repair, but such interventions must be designed carefully given their cost and their offsetting effects on energy savings as well as indoor and outdoor pollutants. We developed models to take into account the complex behavior of airflow patterns in multifamily buildings, which can be used to identify and evaluate environmental and non‐environmental interventions targeting indoor air pollutants which can trigger asthma exacerbations.