Global Scenarios of Air Pollutant Emissions from Road Transport through to 2050

Abstract

This paper presents global scenarios of sulphur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), and particulate matter (PM) emissions from road transport through to 2050, taking into account the potential impacts of: (1) the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries; (2) global CO₂ mitigation policy implementation; and (3) vehicle cost assumptions, on study results. This is done by using a global energy system model treating the transport sector in detail. The major conclusions are the following. First, as long as non-developed countries adopt the same vehicle emission standards as in developed countries within a 30-year lag, global emissions of SO₂, NO_x, and PM from road vehicles decrease substantially over time. Second, light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty trucks make a large and increasing contribution to future global emissions of SO₂, NO_x, and PM from road vehicles. Third, the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries has a large impact on future global emissions of SO₂, NO_x, and PM from road vehicles, whereas there is a possibility that global CO₂ mitigation policy implementation has a comparatively small impact on them.