The cusum test of homogeneity with an application in spontaneous abortion epidemiology

Abstract

We test the hypothesis of homogeneity over time in the rate of an event with a modification of Page's cumulative sum (cusum) procedure. The modification draws on an indifference zone approach to testing that is well suited to the epidemiologic study of retrospective data. We provide procedures for evaluating the significance level of the largest observed cusum value occurring in a sequence of fixed length. We draw inferences unconditionally with a known baseline rate of the event, and conditionally on observed margins with unknown baseline rate. Data collected over a five year period from one New York City hospital serve to illustrate the modified cusum test in a study of fluctuations in the proportions of chromosomally normal, trisomic, X-monosomic and triploid spontaneous abortions.