Microfilaria density distribution in the human population and its infectivity index for the mosquito population

Abstract

Summary: A new method of computing the infectivity index of microfilariae (mf) for the mosquito population is proposed using the estimated mf density distribution in the human population. The observed density distribution is considered a compound of the Poisson and the gamma distributions. The former distribution describes the probability of a specimen containing a specified number of mf and the latter describes the density distribution of mf in the host population. The mf infectivity index is the probability that a blood meal will include at least 1 mf, conditional on the population-density distribution of mf as specified by the gamma distribution. Actual data indicate that this population-density-based infectivity index can be considerably different from the conventional index based on the survey-density distribution. The level of the carrier rate of mf in a survey is greatly influenced, apart from the sample variation, by the average volume of blood taken from each person. The rate computed on the estimated population-density distribution of mf is convertible to any base amount of blood.