When the Cost Curve Bent — Pre-Recession Moderation in Health Care Spending

Abstract

Commentators have noted recent moderation in the rate of growth of U.S. health care spending — a bend in the cost curve.¹ A critical question is whether the low growth rate is likely to continue — an issue with enormous implications for the country's fiscal future. If the slowdown resulted from the recession, the rate is likely to increase as we return to full employment; if not, it may provide a respite from the problems created by spending inflation.