Growth-Differentiation Factor-15 Is a Robust, Independent Predictor of 11-Year Mortality Risk in Community-Dwelling Older Adults

Abstract

Background—: Growth-differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) is emerging as a prognostic marker in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD), but its prognostic value in community-dwelling adults has not been reported. We hypothesized that GDF-15 would add incremental power for prediction of mortality in a population of community-dwelling older adults without known heart disease. Methods and Results—: We measured plasma GDF-15, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and C-reactive protein levels in 1391 Rancho Bernardo Study participants, mean age 70 years, with no history of CVD and followed them for a mean of 11 years. In models adjusted for traditional CVD risk factors, GDF-15 was a robust predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular, and noncardiovascular mortality. GDF-15 was a stronger predictor of all-cause mortality than either NT-proBNP or C-reactive protein (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] per SD log ₁₀ units 1.5 [1.3 to 1.8], P P P P =0.01). Conclusions—: Growth differentiation factor-15 is a strong predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular, and noncardiovascular mortality in community-dwelling older individuals, adding incremental value to traditional risk factors and to NT-proBNP and C-reactive protein levels.