Endogenous Substitution among Energy Resources and Global Warming

Abstract

A model of global warming with endogenous substitution of energy resources and multiple energy demands is developed. It suggests that, if historical rates of cost reduction in the production of solar energy are maintained, most of the world's coal will never be used. The world will move from oil and natural gas use to solar energy. Temperatures will rise by only about 1.5-2.0 degrees centigrade by the middle of the twenty-first century and then decline to preindustrial levels. These results are significantly lower than those predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and suggest that the case for global warming may be seriously overstated. Copyright 1997 by the University of Chicago.