Assessing Clinical Probability of Pulmonary Embolism in the Emergency Ward: A Simple Score

Abstract
We aimed to develop a simple standardized clinical score to stratify emergency ward patients with clinically suspected PE into groups with a high, intermediate, or low probability of PE, in order to improve and simplify the diagnostic approach. Analysis of a database of 1090 consecutive patients admitted to the emergency ward for suspected PE, in whom diagnosis of PE was ruled in or out by a standard diagnostic algorithm. Logistic regression was used to predict clinical parameters associated with PE. 296 out of 1090 patients (27%) were found to have PE. The optimal estimate of clinical probability was based on eight variables: recent surgery, previous thromboembolic event, older age, hypocapnia, hypoxemia, tachycardia, band atelectasis or elevation of a hemidiaphragm on chest X-ray. A probability score was calculated by adding points assigned to these variables. A cut-off score of 4 best identified patients with low probability of PE. 486 patients (49%) had a low clinical probability of PE (score < 4), of which 50 (10.3%) had a proven PE. The prevalence of PE was 38% in the 437 patients with an intermediate probability (score 5–8, n = 437) and 81% in the 63 patients with a high probability (score>9). This clinical score, based on easily available and objective variables, provides a standardized assessment of the clinical probability of PE. Applying this score to emergency ward patients suspected of PE could allow a more efficient diagnostic process.