Population distribution models: species distributions are better modeled using biologically relevant data partitions
Open Access
- 19 September 2011
- journal article
- Published by Springer Science and Business Media LLC in BMC Ecology
- Vol. 11 (1), 20
- https://doi.org/10.1186/1472-6785-11-20
Abstract
Background Predicting the geographic distribution of widespread species through modeling is problematic for several reasons including high rates of omission errors. One potential source of error for modeling widespread species is that subspecies and/or races of species are frequently pooled for analyses, which may mask biologically relevant spatial variation within the distribution of a single widespread species. We contrast a presence-only maximum entropy model for the widely distributed oldfield mouse (Peromyscus polionotus) that includes all available presence locations for this species, with two composite maximum entropy models. The composite models either subdivided the total species distribution into four geographic quadrants or by fifteen subspecies to capture spatially relevant variation in P. polionotus distributions. Results Despite high Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) values for all models, the composite species distribution model of P. polionotus generated from individual subspecies models represented the known distribution of the species much better than did the models produced by partitioning data into geographic quadrants or modeling the whole species as a single unit. Conclusions Because the AUC values failed to describe the differences in the predictability of the three modeling strategies, we suggest using omission curves in addition to AUC values to assess model performance. Dividing the data of a widespread species into biologically relevant partitions greatly increased the performance of our distribution model; therefore, this approach may prove to be quite practical and informative for a wide range of modeling applications.Keywords
This publication has 36 references indexed in Scilit:
- THE SELECTIVE ADVANTAGE OF CRYPSIS IN MICEEvolution, 2010
- Adaptive basis of geographic variation: genetic, phenotypic and environmental differences among beach mouse populationsProceedings. Biological sciences, 2009
- Inferring distributions of chirodropid box-jellyfishes (Cnidaria: Cubozoa) in geographic and ecological space using ecological niche modelingMarine Ecology Progress Series, 2009
- The Genetic Basis of Phenotypic Convergence in Beach Mice: Similar Pigment Patterns but Different GenesMolecular Biology and Evolution, 2008
- Population genetics and conservation of the threatened southeastern beach mouse (Peromyscus polionotus niveiventris): subspecies and evolutionary unitsConservation Genetics, 2007
- Using Ecological‐Niche Modeling to Predict Barred Owl Invasions with Implications for Spotted Owl ConservationConservation Biology, 2003
- Modeling viable mammal populations in gap analysesBiological Conservation, 2001
- A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence modelsEnvironmental Conservation, 1997
- Status and Habitat of Three Subspecies of Peromyscus polionotus in FloridaJournal of Mammalogy, 1981
- Ecological Factors in Speciation of PeromyscusEvolution, 1950