An Objective Model for Identifying Secondary Eyewall Formation in Hurricanes

Abstract

Hurricanes, and particularly major hurricanes, will often organize a secondary eyewall at some distance around the primary eyewall. These events have been associated with marked changes in the intensity and structure of the inner core, such as large and rapid deviations of the maximum wind and significant broadening of the surface wind field. While the consequences of rapidly fluctuating peak wind speeds are of great importance, the broadening of the overall wind field also has particularly dangerous consequences in terms of increased storm surge and wind damage extent during landfall events. Despite the importance of secondary eyewall formation in hurricane forecasting, there is presently no objective guidance to diagnose or forecast these events. Here a new empirical model is introduced that will provide forecasters with a probability of imminent secondary eyewall formation. The model is based on environmental and geostationary satellite features applied to a naïve Bayes probabilistic model and classification scheme. In independent testing, the algorithm performs skillfully against a defined climatology.