Slope movement crisis on the east flank of Mt. Etna volcano: Models for eruption triggering and forecasting
- 1 December 1994
- journal article
- Published by Elsevier BV in Engineering Geology
- Vol. 38 (3-4), 245-259
- https://doi.org/10.1016/0013-7952(94)90041-8
Abstract
Benchmarks installed on the upper eastern flank of Mt. Etna in 1982 have subsided continually since then, with the rate of subsidence twice accelerating prior to eruptions. The first of these eruptions was in December 1985, and the second in September 1989. This pattern of accelerating downslope movement has also been observed prior to landslides, and recent work applying knowledge of the failure of materials has shown that analysis of the inverse rate of these movements can be used to predict the time of failure. Post-eruption analyses of geodetic or seismic data from volcanoes has shown that in several cases, this approach could have been used to forecast eruptions weeks in advance. Applying the same principles to the accelerating subsidence on Mt. Etna's eastern flank prior to the eruptions of 1985 and 1989 shows that rough estimates of eruption dates could have been obtained several months in advance. These observations also suggest a speculative eruption-triggering mechanism involving an interplay between slope creep deformation and extensional weakening over the zone of intrusion.Keywords
This publication has 11 references indexed in Scilit:
- Importance of gravitational spreading in the tectonic and volcanic evolution of Mount EtnaNature, 1992
- Prospects for eruption prediction in near real-timeNature, 1991
- A Relation to Describe Rate-Dependent Material FailureScience, 1989
- The influence of loading by lavas on the siting of volcanic eruption vents on Mt EtnaJournal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 1988
- A method for prediction of volcanic eruptionsNature, 1988
- Three-dimensional model of the feeder conduit of the 1983 eruption of Mt. Etna volcano, from ground deformation measurementsBulletin of Volcanology, 1984
- Earthquake activity during the 1983 Etna eruptionBulletin of Volcanology, 1984
- The valle del bove, Mount Etna: Its origin and relation to the stratigraphy and structure of the volcanoJournal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 1984
- Evolution of the etna volcano: Information from the southern wall of the Valle Del Bove CalderaJournal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 1982
- Vertical ground deformation on Mount Etna, 1975–1980GSA Bulletin, 1982