Dynamic Modelling of the Building Cycle: 2. Empirical Results
- 1 April 1987
- journal article
- research article
- Published by SAGE Publications in Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space
- Vol. 19 (4), 493-520
- https://doi.org/10.1068/a190493
Abstract
This paper is a presentation of the results of the third stage of a project designed to investigate the incidence and causes of postwar building cycles in the British economy. In the first stage spectral analysis was used to identify the main postwar cycles in each sector of building (industrial, commercial, and residential); the second stage involved the development of a theoretical framework suitable for dynamic modelling of these cycles; and the third stage was concerned with estimating the best time-series model for each cycle. The estimated models demonstrate the presence of both an endogenous supply-side mechanism creating major building cycles of up to nine years' duration, and the exogenous influence of business-cycle fluctuations within user and investment submarkets which are transmitted via the demand for property into short building cycles of four to five years duration. In addition, the models demonstrate how the building cycle in each sector may be influenced by other factors, such as development costs and property rents and values.This publication has 7 references indexed in Scilit:
- Dynamic Modelling of the Building Cycle: 1. Theoretical FrameworkEnvironment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 1987
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