Trends of measured climate forcing agents

Abstract

The growth rate of climate forcing by measured greenhouse gases peaked near 1980 at almost 5 W/m² per century. This growth rate has since declined to ≈3 W/m² per century, largely because of cooperative international actions. We argue that trends can be reduced to the level needed for the moderate “alternative” climate scenario (≈2 W/m² per century for the next 50 years) by means of concerted actions that have other benefits, but the forcing reductions are not automatic “co-benefits” of actions that slow CO₂ emissions. Current trends of climate forcings by aerosols remain very uncertain. Nevertheless, practical constraints on changes in emission levels suggest that global warming at a rate +0.15 ± 0.05°C per decade will occur over the next several decades.