A method for statistical downscaling of seasonal ensemble predictions
Open Access
- 1 May 2005
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Stockholm University Press in Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
- Vol. 57 (3), 398-408
- https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00102.x
Abstract
A model output statistics based method for downscaling seasonal ensemble predictions is outlined, and examplesof ensemble predictions of precipitation and 2-m temperature are verified against observing stations in Scandinavia, Europe, north-western America, the contiguous United States and Australia. The downscaling from seasonal ensemblepredictions from coupled ocean/atmosphere general circulation models to daily precipitation time series for individualobserving stations is performed in three steps: (i) a spatial downscaling of ensemble mean seasonal means from dynamicalmodel output to station level by means of patterns derived from a singular value decomposition analysis of model outputand observations; (ii) application of the downscaling transformation to the model output ensemble and subsequentcalibration of the downscaled ensemble; (iii) a stochastic generation of daily precipitation conditioned on predictionsof the probability of a wet day in the season and daily persistence. In the majority of the examples, the downscaling isfound to provide more skilful predictions than the raw dynamical model output.This publication has 36 references indexed in Scilit:
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