The Global Burden of Measles in the Year 2000—A Model that Uses Country‐Specific Indicators

Abstract

The estimation of the global burden of measles is challenging in the absence of reliable and comparable surveillance systems worldwide. A static model is described that enables estimation of measles morbidity, mortality, and disability for the year 2000 on the basis of country‐specific information (i.e., demographic profile, vaccine coverage, and estimates of case‐fatality ratios). This approach estimated a global incidence of 39.9 million measles cases, 777,000 deaths, and 28 million disability‐adjusted life years. The World Health Organization regions of Africa and Southeast Asia had 70% of incident cases and 84% of measles‐related deaths; 11 countries alone (Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Somalia, Uganda) account for 66% of deaths. This approach quantifies the measles burden by considering country‐specific indicators, which can be updated, permitting an assessment of country, regional, and global changes in the burden associated with measles infection.