Have Your Cake and Eat It, Too: Increasing Returns While Lowering Large Risks!

Abstract

In the real world, the variance of portfolio returns provides only a limited quantification of incurred risks, as the distributions of returns have “fat tails” and the dependence between assets are only imperfectly accounted for by the correlation matrix. Value‐at‐risk and other measures of risks have been developed to account for the larger moves allowed by non‐Gaussian distributions. In this article, the authors distinguish “small” risks from “large” risks, in order to suggest an alternative approach to portfolio optimization that simultaneously increases portfolio returns while minimizing the risk of low frequency, high severity events. This approach treats the variance or second‐order cumulant as a measure of “small” risks. In contrast, higher even‐order cumulants, starting with the fourth‐order cumulant, quantify the “large” risks. The authors employ these estimates of portfolio cumulants based on fat‐tailed distributions to rebalance portfolio exposures to mitigate large risks.