Climatic change and river ice breakup

Abstract

The flow hydrograph, thickness of the winter ice cover, and stream morphology are three climate-influenced factors that govern river ice processes in general and ice breakup and jamming in particular. Considerable warming and changes in precipitation patterns, as predicted by general circulation models (GCMs) for various increased greenhouse-gas scenarios, would affect the length and duration of the ice season and the timing and severity of ice breakup. Climate-induced changes to river ice processes and the associated hydrologic regimes can produce physical, biological, and socioeconomic effects. Current knowledge of climatic impacts on the ice breakup regime of rivers and the future effects of a changing climate are discussed.Key words: breakup, climate change, global warming, greenhouse effect, hydrology, ice, ice jam, impacts, prediction, river ice.