Analytical Forecasting of Population Distribution over Years in a New Rail Transportation Corridor

Abstract

For fast-growing cities in developing countries, population distribution is significantly affected by a candidate rail transit line. To enjoy the travel convenience of rail service, households would like to move into residential locations in the candidate rail transportation corridor. Meanwhile, while more households are attracted to live in the candidate rail transportation corridor over years, the over-year performance of the candidate rail transit line would be better. That is, interaction exists between population distribution and performance of the candidate rail transit line over years. Unfortunately, the over-year interaction between population distribution and performance of the candidate rail transit line was seldom considered in previous studies. This paper tries to bridge this research gap and presents analytical forecasting of population distributions over years in a new candidate rail transportation corridor. A bilevel mathematical model is proposed, with a lower-level problem formulated as a user-equilibrium model, and an upper-level problem formulated as an over-year rail transit line design model. Finally, a numerical example is given to show the application of the proposed model.