The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
Top Cited Papers
Open Access
- 24 April 2020
- journal article
- research article
- Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Science
- Vol. 368 (6489), 395-400
- https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba9757
Abstract
Motivated by the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated on the basis of internationally reported cases and shows that, at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in mainland China but had a more marked effect on the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid-February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.Keywords
This publication has 25 references indexed in Scilit:
- Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictionsPublished by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory ,2020
- Spread of Zika virus in the AmericasProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017
- Assessing the International Spreading Risk Associated with the 2014 West African Ebola OutbreakPLoS Currents, 2014
- Approximate Bayesian ComputationPLoS Computational Biology, 2013
- Modeling the spatial spread of infectious diseases: The GLobal Epidemic and Mobility computational modelJournal of Computational Science, 2010
- Multiscale mobility networks and the spatial spreading of infectious diseasesProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2009
- Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobilityBMC Medicine, 2009
- Societal Learning in Epidemics: Intervention Effectiveness during the 2003 SARS Outbreak in SingaporePLOS ONE, 2006
- Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory SyndromeScience, 2003
- Transmission Dynamics of the Etiological Agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of Public Health InterventionsScience, 2003