Dynamic Blowout Risk Analysis Using Loss Functions
- 31 January 2018
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Wiley in Risk Analysis
- Vol. 38 (2), 255-271
- https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12879
Abstract
Most risk analysis approaches are static; failing to capture evolving conditions. Blowout, the most feared accident during a drilling operation, is a complex and dynamic event. The traditional risk analysis methods are useful in the early design stage of drilling operation while falling short during evolving operational decision making. A new dynamic risk analysis approach is presented to capture evolving situations through dynamic probability and consequence models. The dynamic consequence models, the focus of this study, are developed in terms of loss functions. These models are subsequently integrated with the probability to estimate operational risk, providing a real-time risk analysis. The real-time evolving situation is considered dependent on the changing bottom-hole pressure as drilling progresses. The application of the methodology and models are demonstrated with a case study of an offshore drilling operation evolving to a blowout.Keywords
Funding Information
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
- Canada Research Chairs
- Research and Development Corporation of Newfoundland and Labrador
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