Stability and consensus analysis on the Delphi study for the utilisation of renewable energy sources in India

Abstract

The non renewable nature and the accelerated demand of conventional energy has forced planners and policy makers to look for alternative sources. Renewable energy sources can contribute significantly in meeting the increasing energy demand of the country. It is one area which is expanding rapidly and a number of innovations are taking place. But the qualitative functions such as awareness and social acceptance of the users have to be determined. Hence a Delphi study has been conducted to ascertain the quantum of acceptance of renewable energy sources in the context of possible deterioration of the environment because of increased use of fossil fuels. This study identifies the best methods to popularise the renewable energy sources. It also deals with the problems related to the utilisation of the renewable energy systems. By using statistical methods, the opinions of the participants involved in this study have been analysed and a general consensus arrived at. The literature survey reveals that not much work has been done in determining the social acceptance and percentage allocation for renewable energy sources using a Delphi study. The observations made by the experts reveal that by the year 2020 solar energy can be used to the extent of 15%, 17%, 19%, 20%, 18% and 11% of total energy consumption for lighting, cooking, pumping, heating, cooling and transportation end-uses respectively. Similarly, the experts estimated the extent of wind energy and biomass energy utilisation for the different enduses. The study forecasts around 25% of total energy utilisation is expected to be from renewable energy sources by the year 2020 and beyond.