Is Development Path Dependent or Political? A Reinterpretation of Mineral-Dependent Development in Botswana
- 25 March 2009
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Taylor & Francis Ltd in The Journal of Development Studies
- Vol. 45 (4), 544-571
- https://doi.org/10.1080/00220380802265488
Abstract
Poor management of earnings from valuable natural resources results in a syndrome known as Dutch Disease, characterised by real exchange rate appreciation, high labour costs, and structural imbalances in economic development. Often a product of rentier politics, Dutch Disease undermines long-term economic performance in resource dependent economies resulting in a ‘resource curse’. The conventional wisdom argues that institutions and state development at the time of a resource boom lock countries into divergent developmental trajectories. I argue that political coalitions lay the foundation for development of state and other institutions, and that changes in coalitions drive changes in policy responses to resource booms. Botswana's experience illustrates the argument. Botswana has not entirely avoided symptoms of Dutch Disease, but has kept them largely in check despite the fragility of state institutions when diamonds were discovered. A broad and stable political coalition during the first decades of independence encouraged adoption of pro-growth policies and institutions. Rather than lock the country into a persistent development trajectory, these institutions left room for changes in political coalitions. As political coalitions change, economic policies and performance are also likely to change.Keywords
This publication has 45 references indexed in Scilit:
- The Politics of Path Dependency: Political Conflict in Historical InstitutionalismThe Journal of Politics, 2005
- New approaches to volatility: dealing with the ‘resource curse’ in sub-Saharan AfricaInternational Affairs, 2005
- Systemic Vulnerability and the Origins of Developmental States: Northeast and Southeast Asia in Comparative PerspectiveInternational Organization, 2005
- Measuring Ethnic Fractionalization in AfricaAmerican Journal of Political Science, 2004
- Regional integration in post‐apartheid Southern Africa: the case of renegotiating the Southern African customs unionJournal of Southern African Studies, 1997
- Corruption and Mismanagement in Botswana: a Best-Case Example?The Journal of Modern African Studies, 1994
- Drought, Dutch disease and controlled transition in Botswana agricultureJournal of Southern African Studies, 1994
- The making of a rentier class: Wealth accumulation and political control in SenegalThe Journal of Development Studies, 1990
- Sectors, States, and Social Forces: Korea and Zambia Confront Economic RestructuringComparative Politics, 1990
- Decision Rules, Decision Styles and Policy ChoicesJournal of Theoretical Politics, 1989