Substantial Health And Economic Returns From Delayed Aging May Warrant A New Focus For Medical Research
- 1 October 2013
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Health Affairs (Project Hope) in Health Affairs
- Vol. 32 (10), 1698-1705
- https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2013.0052
Abstract
Recent scientific advances suggest that slowing the aging process (senescence) is now a realistic goal. Yet most medical research remains focused on combating individual diseases. Using the Future Elderly Model—a microsimulation of the future health and spending of older Americans—we compared optimistic “disease specific” scenarios with a hypothetical “delayed aging” scenario in terms of the scenarios’ impact on longevity, disability, and major entitlement program costs. Delayed aging could increase life expectancy by an additional 2.2 years, most of which would be spent in good health. The economic value of delayed aging is estimated to be $7.1 trillion over fifty years. In contrast, addressing heart disease and cancer separately would yield diminishing improvements in health and longevity by 2060—mainly due to competing risks. Delayed aging would greatly increase entitlement outlays, especially for Social Security. However, these changes could be offset by increasing the Medicare eligibility age and the normal retirement age for Social Security. Overall, greater investment in research to delay aging appears to be a highly efficient way to forestall disease, extend healthy life, and improve public health.Keywords
This publication has 32 references indexed in Scilit:
- Physical and cognitive functioning of people older than 90 years: a comparison of two Danish cohorts born 10 years apartThe Lancet, 2013
- Cellular senescence and the senescent secretory phenotype: therapeutic opportunitiesJCI Insight, 2013
- The Genetics of Extreme Longevity: Lessons from the New England Centenarian StudyFrontiers in Genetics, 2012
- Mortality and Morbidity Trends: Is There Compression of Morbidity?The Journals of Gerontology, Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences, 2010
- Exceptional Parental Longevity Associated with Lower Risk of Alzheimer's Disease and Memory DeclineJournal of the American Geriatrics Society, 2010
- Aging in America in the Twenty‐first Century: Demographic Forecasts from the MacArthur Foundation Research Network on an Aging SocietyThe Milbank Quarterly, 2009
- The Benefits of Risk Factor Prevention in Americans Aged 51 Years and OlderAmerican Journal of Public Health, 2009
- Rapamycin fed late in life extends lifespan in genetically heterogeneous miceNature, 2009
- Genetic Determinants of Human Health Span and Life Span: Progress and New OpportunitiesPLoS Genetics, 2007
- Aging, Natural Death, and the Compression of MorbidityThe New England Journal of Medicine, 1980