Species lifetime distribution for simple models of ecologies
Open Access
- 18 October 2005
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
- Vol. 102 (44), 15747-15751
- https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0502648102
Abstract
Interpretation of empirical results based on a taxa9s lifetime distribution shows apparently conflicting results. Species9 lifetime is reported to be exponentially distributed, whereas higher-order taxa, such as families or genera, follow a broader distribution, compatible with power-law decay. We show that both forms of evidence are consistent with a simple evolutionary model that does not require specific assumptions on species interaction. The model provides a zero-order description of the dynamics of ecological communities, and its species lifetime distribution can be computed exactly. Different behaviors are found as follows: an initial t-3/2 power law, emerging from a random walk type of dynamics, which crosses over to a steeper t-2 branching process-like regime and finally is cut off by an exponential decay that becomes weaker and weaker as the total population increases. Sampling effects also can be taken into account and shown to be relevant. If species in the fossil record were sampled according to the Fisher log-series distribution, lifetime should be distributed according to a t-1 power law. Such variability of behaviors in a simple model, combined with the scarcity of data available, casts serious doubt on the possibility of validating theories of evolution on the basis of species lifetime data.Keywords
This publication has 32 references indexed in Scilit:
- Does a latitudinal gradient in seedling survival favour larger seeds in the tropics?Ecology Letters, 2004
- Stochastic model for the species abundance problem in an ecological communityPhysical Review E, 2004
- Biological evolution and statistical physicsAdvances in Physics, 2001
- A multiplicative multifractal model for originations and extinctionsPaleobiology, 2001
- Rates of speciation in the fossil recordPhilosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 1998
- Self-organized criticality, evolution and the fossil extinction recordProceedings Of The Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 1996
- Spatial Models for Species-Area CurvesJournal of Theoretical Biology, 1996
- Are critical phenomena relevant to large-scale evolution?Proceedings Of The Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 1996
- Atlantic Eocene planktonic foraminiferal paleohydrographic indicators and stable isotope paleoceanographyPaleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 1987
- Stochastic Problems in Physics and AstronomyReviews of Modern Physics, 1943