An ordered response model of test cricket performance
- 1 December 2002
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Taylor & Francis Ltd in Applied Economics
- Vol. 34 (18), 2353-2365
- https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840210148085
Abstract
The paper analyses the prediction of test cricket outcomes using an ordered response model. The results, based on data over the period 1994 to 1999, suggest that the ordered categorized production outcome of test cricket (win, draw, loss) can be explained by simple measures of the batting and bowling labour inputs. For example, across all countries the model correctly predicts 71% of test cricket outcomes. Further, it is found that losses are correctly predicted most often at 81% of the sample but that the model faces its biggest challenge predicting test match draws-only getting 57% of these cases correct. Also analysed are the circumstances in which the model produces incorrect predictions and it is found that the most common events are unsuccessful last innings runs chases; successful last innings runs chases and rain-affected matches. An analysis of failed model predictions in terms of country factors suggests that (relative to all other countries) Pakistan has a higher tendency to be involved in such matches, whereas Sri Lanka has a higher tendency to be involved in matches that are ‘predictable’. A ‘style’ analysis using this model suggests that five test cricket styles are evident. Style I is that of ‘Bowling and Batting Performance’ and describes Pakistan, the West Indies and (perhaps to a lesser extent) Zimbabwe. Style II is that of ‘Batting Performance’ and describes England, New Zealand and (perhaps to a lesser extent) India. Style III is ‘Bowling Performance’ and describes Australia. Style IV is ‘Bowling Performance/Batting Strike Rate’ and describes South Africa. Finally, Style V is ‘Bowling Performance and Strike Rate’ and describes Sri Lanka. Finally, the model is used to analyse which country can claim to be the world champions of test cricket over the sample period. In an initial analysis based on average performance over this period, South Africa has the best claim. However, in a ‘heavyweight title’ contest between South Africa and Australia, Australia has the superior claim.Keywords
This publication has 13 references indexed in Scilit:
- Mood scores: Mood and performance in professional cricketersBritish Journal Of Psychology, 1999
- Anxiety-Performance Relationships in Cricketers: Testing the Zone of Optimal Functioning HypothesisPerceptual and Motor Skills, 1998
- Modelling performance at international tennis and golf tournaments: is there a home advantage?Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician), 1997
- A Comparison of Leg Before Wicket Rates Between Australians and Their Visiting Teams for Test Cricket Series Played in Australia, 1977-94Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician), 1996
- Home Ground Advantage of Individual Clubs in English SoccerJournal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician), 1995
- Production functions in cricket: the Australian and New Zealand experienceApplied Economics, 1990
- Production functions in the sports industry: an empirical analysis of professional cricketApplied Economics, 1988
- Salary Vs. marginal revenue product under monopsony and competition: The case of professional basketballAtlantic Economic Journal, 1985
- Production Efficiency: The Case of Professional BasketballThe Journal of Business, 1979
- The Peculiar Economics of Professional Sports: A Contribution to the Theory of the Firm in Sporting Competition and in Market CompetitionThe Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1964