The ten-year follow-up of the Bedford Survey (1962?1972): Glucose tolerance and diabetes

Abstract

In a 10-year prospective study of 241 people with ‘borderline diabetes” (impaired glucose tolerance) identified by screening of the Bedford adult population, 36 (15%) worsened to diabetes and 128 (53%) substantially improved their glucose tolerance. The major predictor of worsening to diabetes was the level of blood glucose at baseline. This was statistically significant (p < 0.05), independent of other factors, both for deterioration in the first and in the second five years of observation. Body mass index, a measure of adiposity, did not predict worsening to diabetes during the first five years, but was an independent and significant predictor of worsening during the second five years (p < 0.05). The apparent effect of adiposity was complex, for it was also significantly related to improvement in glucose tolerance during the 10-year follow-up. Persons with impaired glucose tolerance are a heterogeneous group and with present knowledge the ability to predict metabolic deterioration is limited.