Evaluating the ability of process based models to project sea-level change
Open Access
- 1 March 2013
- journal article
- letter
- Published by IOP Publishing in Environmental Research Letters
- Vol. 8 (1), 014051
- https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014051
Abstract
We evaluate the ability of process based models to reproduce observed global mean sea-level change. When the models are forced by changes in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate system and anthropogenic changes in land-water storage, the average of the modelled sea-level change for the periods 1900–2010, 1961–2010 and 1990–2010 is about 80%, 85% and 90% of the observed rise. The modelled rate of rise is over 1 mm yr−1 prior to 1950, decreases to less than 0.5 mm yr−1 in the 1960s, and increases to 3 mm yr−1 by 2000. When observed regional climate changes are used to drive a glacier model and an allowance is included for an ongoing adjustment of the ice sheets, the modelled sea-level rise is about 2 mm yr−1 prior to 1950, similar to the observations. The model results encompass the observed rise and the model average is within 20% of the observations, about 10% when the observed ice sheet contributions since 1993 are added, increasing confidence in future projections for the 21st century. The increased rate of rise since 1990 is not part of a natural cycle but a direct response to increased radiative forcing (both anthropogenic and natural), which will continue to grow with ongoing greenhouse gas emissions.Keywords
This publication has 44 references indexed in Scilit:
- Predictability of twentieth century sea-level rise from past dataEnvironmental Research Letters, 2013
- The 2011 La Niña: So strong, the oceans fellGeophysical Research Letters, 2012
- Is there a 60‐year oscillation in global mean sea level?Geophysical Research Letters, 2012
- Revisiting the Earth's sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008Geophysical Research Letters, 2011
- Understanding and Projecting Sea Level ChangeOceanography, 2011
- Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st CenturySurveys in Geophysics, 2011
- Geodetic and direct mass-balance measurements: comparison and joint analysisAnnals of Glaciology, 2009
- Impact of Artificial Reservoir Water Impoundment on Global Sea LevelScience, 2008
- Significant decadal-scale impact of volcanic eruptions on sea level and ocean heat contentNature, 2005
- Global Warming and the Greenland Ice SheetClimatic Change, 2004